Possibility of a regime change in Iran

The idea of toppling the Iranian regime feels pretty far-fetched at this point in time, unless a few key things happen all at once. For real change to take root, we’d need to see a major revolt within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a wave of sustained protests sweeping across the nation, and a strong, unifying opposition leader to galvanize public support.

Even though many Iranians are unhappy with the current situation, the regime’s robust security apparatus and its track record of quashing dissent, like what we saw during the 2009 Green Movement and the 2019 fuel protests help it hold onto power.

Recent developments, such as increased Israeli airstrikes and U.S. leaders calling for Iran to completely surrender, have heightened internal tensions, but they haven’t yet weakened the regime’s core.

Experts suggest that the Iranian leadership is firmly in control, using a sense of unity to face various challenges. However, ongoing economic difficulties, effective opposition protests, and resistance from liberal segments of society could gradually expose weaknesses in the regime’s foundations. Despite these internal challenges, none of them have the potential to bring about immediate change. Even if there were to be a successful assassination of the Supreme Leader, the regime would likely continue to function.

In the end, a total collapse might only happen if external military pressure causes cracks within the IRGC. Without that, it seems Iran’s government will continue to endure, possibly becoming even more authoritarian, despite the rising unrest and frustration among its citizens, especially the younger crowd, liberals and Baluch separatists operating in Sistan province.